Soldotna, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

313
FXAK68 PAFC 140256
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 PM AKST Fri Feb 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...

A high amplitude ridge is centered over the north-central Pacific
and extends northward to mainland Alaska. A corresponding high
amplitude trough is positioned upstream over the Bering Sea. A
strong jet stream is helping steer short-waves rapidly across the
Bering Sea and toward western AK, helping to push the top of the
ridge eastward. At the surface, a moderate strength low is
approaching western AK with a trailing cold front progressing
eastward across the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Weather is quite
benign over Southcentral, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf due to the
ridge aloft. The day started with and extensive area of stratus
and fog from the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the
Mat-Su. Secondarily, areas of fog and low clouds can also be
found in the Copper Valley. There is enough solar radiation to
help erode some of the fog and low clouds from the edges, but
with light winds and stable conditions, the solar influence won`t
be enough to erode it all.

The forecast for Southcentral on Saturday is on track, with an
upper level short-wave and cold front progressing quickly from
west to east. Snowfall in any one location will tend to be light
and brief in nature with 3 to 6 hours of accumulation. Low level
west to southwest flow will favor the western slopes of mountain
ranges for the highest snow accumulation, including the Front
Range Chugach in Anchorage, the southern to western side of the
Talkeetna Mountains and up the Matanuska Valley from Palmer to
Chickaloon, and the southern to western slopes of the Wrangell
Mountains and Alaska Range in the Copper River Basin. Will hoist
Winter Weather Advisories for the Upper Matanuska Valley where
expect 6" or more of snow. Model guidance has come into much
better agreement with the track up an upper level short-wave, but
the GFS is still notably slower with the progression of the cold
front (and timing of snowfall). The latest forecast sticks with
the faster timing.

Cold air advection behind the cold front will lead to rapidly
strengthening gap winds, first across the western Gulf, southern
Cook Inlet, and Kodiak Island Saturday afternoon spreading to the
north Gulf coast and Prince William Sound Saturday evening. There
could be some localized areas of blowing snow, most notably
through Thompson Pass - though generally expect very light
accumulation for coastal areas tomorrow prior to onset of winds
which will limit the amount of transportable snow.

There will be partial clearing of skies Saturday night, but a
strong westerly flow aloft will bring additional short-waves into
Southcentral Saturday night through Sunday. These will low
amplitude short- waves with very little moisture to work with, so
at most there might be some upslope snow along the west sides of
mountain ranges with little or no snow accumulation. More than
anything, it will bring another round of clouds into the region.
While colder air settles over the region tomorrow night, the
presence of clouds (and winds in some locations) will initially
limit the amount of cooling. Decreasing clouds Sunday through
Sunday night along with a reinforcing shot of cold air advection
from Interior AK will cool surface temperatures more
significantly Sunday night and into the early part of next week.
With a high amplitude ridge building upstream, a strong northerly
jet and cold air advecting from north to south will favor
persistent gap winds along the coast and high probability of
strong winds in The Valdez/Thompson Pass area. The exact placement
of the ridge and axis of strongest cold air advection will
determine how strong those winds will be, with a High Wind warning
(75 mph) not out of the question for Thompson Pass.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Points:

* Blizzard Warning for Kuskokwim Delta has be downgraded to a
  Winter Weather Advisory as snow, blowing snow and reduced
  visibilities transitions to mixed precipitation.

 - Snow will transition to freezing rain behind a front as
   temperatures warm this afternoon. Freezing rain transitions
   back to snow by Saturday morning.

* Winter Weather Advisory Aniak Region

- Snowfall in the Aniak region will transition to a mix of
  freezing rain and snow by early Saturday morning. This mix will
  become snow again by late Saturday morning when temperatures
  cool.

* Winter Weather Advisory Bristol Bay

- Snowfall in Bristol Bay will transition to freezing rain by this
  evening. Temperatures warm above freezing by Saturday morning,
  transitioning freezing rain to rain.

* Winter Weather Advisory AKPEN

 - Freezing rain and impact much of the AKPEN through Saturday.
   Freezing rain becomes rain Saturday morning when temperatures
   rise above freezing.

A front is currently moving inland along the Southwest Coast,
accented by a transition from snow and blowing snow, to rain and
freezing rain as temperatures warm aloft behind the front. This
is especially apparent in the 00Z Bethel sounding with a strong
(and deep) warm nose as surface temperatures remain frigid.
Eventually, a cold front will drop in from the north behind this
front and transition rain and freezing rain back to snow late
Saturday morning before the precipitation ends. Meanwhile, a large
swath of rain extends southwest-ward across the Pribs and the
Aleutian Chain as the precipitation shield transitions eastward.

Zonal flow sets in by Saturday evening, allowing for calmer and
drier weather across Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. A short
burst of snow is looking more likely across the Kuskokwim Delta
as a low passes north of the area late Saturday through Sunday
morning (this is a change from the last forecast iteration as the
associated shortwave has progressed faster than previously
resolved). A broad ridge moves into Eastern Bering by Sunday
afternoon, allowing for continued drier and calmer weather.
However, behind the ridge is large front that will move in from
the North Pacific. This front will bring gusty southerly winds
and moderate precipitation along the Aleutians as the front
pushes eastward. By Monday night, the front will arrive at the
Eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula region. Warm air advection will
allow precipitation with the front to transition to rain or
rain/snow.

-AB/JAR


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Persistent ridging over the Pacific at times will extend into
Southwest Alaska through midweek but will be broken up by passing
shortwaves. A shortwave with a surface front moves from the
Aleutians/Bering Sea to Southwest AK Monday night into Tuesday,
which will bring moderate precipitation. This will be snow for
Southwest, with coastal areas of the Alaska Peninsula and
Aleutians seeing mixed precip/rain. This wave moves into
Southcentral Tuesday night into Wednesday, with chances for light
snow increasing as the wave moves through. A weak surface low
looks to develop in the northern Gulf Wednesday as it quickly
moves east, which may increase gap winds through the Barren
Islands.

After Wednesday models trend towards a ridge building over the
Aleutians and southern Bering. This coincides with an Arctic
trough digging southwards across mainland Alaska Wednesday through
Friday. Outside of the Aleutians, temperatures across southern
Alaska will cool after Wednesday. Models differ on exact timing of
the trough, the strength of the ridge, and chances of
precipitation Wednesday-Fiday across Southcentral. These details
will become more clear in the coming days.


PA


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus will continue to lift/mix out this
afternoon and into this evening with VFR conditions expected
overnight. Light snow will begin as early as 15Z tomorrow,
dropping cigs and vis to MVFR and eventually IFR later in the
morning. 1.5 to 3 inches of snow is expected.

&&


$$